Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.780729 1.856953 1.937011 2.027791 2.128416 2.237183 2.364541
2025-11-23 1.685498 1.783761 1.890479 2.016131 2.161594 2.326756 2.531629
2025-11-30 1.630277 1.744356 1.871428 2.025521 2.210342 2.429188 2.715163
2025-12-07 1.554622 1.674871 1.810983 1.979228 2.185861 2.437758 2.779589
2025-12-14 1.509500 1.636941 1.783435 1.967945 2.200008 2.491543 2.903545
2025-12-21 1.466298 1.598432 1.752222 1.948925 2.201300 2.526667 3.003469
2025-12-28 1.447914 1.587964 1.753345 1.968764 2.251898 2.628878 3.207922
2026-01-04 1.436414 1.584744 1.762434 1.998188 2.315871 2.753665 3.462526
2026-01-11 1.410257 1.562260 1.746173 1.993364 2.332482 2.811864 3.620380
2026-01-18 1.390234 1.546385 1.737214 1.997109 2.360337 2.887881 3.818731
2026-01-25 1.355397 1.510824 1.701758 1.963603 2.333188 2.877902 3.863722
2026-02-01 1.331877 1.488704 1.682671 1.951118 2.335046 2.912276 3.994558
2026-02-08 1.310204 1.468986 1.666872 1.943587 2.345362 2.963651 4.173789
2026-02-15 1.289159 1.449359 1.650378 1.934112 2.351823 3.008813 4.349705
2026-02-22 1.276985 1.440576 1.647608 1.943299 2.386410 3.103596 4.654190
2026-03-01 1.245479 1.406076 1.609696 1.901270 2.339937 3.054530 4.620438
2026-03-08 1.227798 1.389046 1.594581 1.891093 2.342298 3.091337 4.800312
2026-03-15 1.208271 1.369142 1.575024 1.873731 2.332287 3.104886 4.926277
2026-03-22 1.202988 1.367625 1.580079 1.891971 2.379679 3.227914 5.380866
2026-03-29 1.201094 1.370411 1.590920 1.918948 2.442819 3.388794 6.027747
2026-04-05 1.188238 1.358350 1.580984 1.914545 2.453444 3.447345 6.383262
2026-04-12 1.178656 1.350398 1.576453 1.917980 2.477361 3.535791 6.901722
2026-04-19 1.157854 1.327061 1.549995 1.887284 2.441016 3.493413 6.885036